疫情笼罩下的中国新造船市场
2020年03月03日 10时 航运界
疫情笼罩下的中国新造船市场
Epidemic Enveloped China Newbuilding Market
2020年2月28日发布的第152期中国新造船价格指数CNPI报802点，环比下跌0.12%，同比下跌3%。三大船型的价格指数除了干散货船下跌以外，油轮和集装箱船均企稳在上个月的位置。在疫情的笼罩下，中国新造船市场呆滞不畅，成交疏落，价格也缺乏方向。
The 152nd China Newbuilding Price Index (CNPI) released on February 28th, 2020 was 802 points, down 0.12% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. Except dry bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships all stood at last month's level. The epidemic has left China's newbuilding market stagnant, with few fixtures disclosed and prices lacking direction.
中国新造船行业在农历新年正月十五后并没有如往年那样恢复正常的生产。
China's newbuilding industry did not return to normal production after the 15th day of the lunar New Year.
一家CNPI指数报价委员评论认为：
One of a CNPI Panel member brokers adds his comments to CNPI that
“从生产的角度来看，二月份似乎消失了。除了领导几乎没有人关心工厂是否开工，啥时开工以及拿啥开工，大家只是忙着在社交软件上吃瓜。实际操作上形成了巨大的反差：国有企业形象第一，纷纷高调宣布复工。奇怪的是部分国有企业也陆续宣布了不可抗力，不知法庭上如果船东律师拿出宣传复工的报纸来如何应对？而民营企业则多数选择不复工，原因显而易见，成本使然。复工企业首先得不到足够的工人，其次回来的工人需要隔离14天，包吃住而且隔离期间居住条件每人一间，老板一算账不如继续关门，反正还可以宣布不可抗力，再挺一个月就是了。”
“from a production standpoint, February seems to have disappeared. Apart from senior management, few yard people care whether the shipyard is open, when it is open and what it is open for. Everybody is busy watching news and exchanging information at Wechat. The contrast in practice is obvious. SOEs announced the resumption of production with great fanfare. It is strange that SOEs have also continued to declare force majeure. What if the shipowner's lawyer brought out the newspaper reporting the resumption of production in Chinese yards? In the contrast, most private yards choose not to return to production at normal scale, for obvious reasons, the cost. Shipyards cannot get enough workers, and the workers who come back need to be quarantined for 14 days, including food and accommodation. During the quarantine period, one man one room policy or even regulation shall be followed. The boss of the yard can easily make his decision, i.e. to close or semi-close the yard for one more month until the epidemic passed and declare force majeure at the same time.”
这家指数委员进一步评论道：
The broker further commented that
“估计目前各船厂手持订单均会延迟1-2个月的交期，这对运费市场也许是个利好，目前BDI已经触底反弹，因此我们保持一贯的观点，即2020年上半年市场将继续下滑，2020年夏天以后会迎来一波新的行情。”
“the deliveries of current orderbook shall be delayed for 1-2 months. And this may be a good thing to the freight market. Now the BDI has begun to rebound from the bottom. We maintain our consistent view that the market will continue to decline in the first half of 2020 and will see a relief rally after the summer of 2020.”
另一家CNPI指数报价委员富洋船舶经纪在写给CNPI的评论中指出：
Forocean Shipbrokers, another CNPI panel broker said in his comment to CNPI that
“本月继续受开年和疫情的影响，中国船厂的新造船没有亮眼的新船的成交，跟一月份中国船厂接获全球近70%的新船订单有着天壤之别。积极的一面是为保交船及在手订单的顺利执行，国内骨干船厂已被迫安排安全复工，消极的是中国船舶工业行业协会提醒船厂由于延迟交船导致船舶必须满足新规范而可能产生的违约风险。据报道，日韩船厂由于疫情影响尤其是在中国有船用设备及分段制造厂配套的影响甚大，延期交付成为大问题。”
“this month, as the start of the year and the outbreak continued, there were no significant new orders at Chinese yards, a far cry from January, when Chinese yards received nearly 70% of global newbuilding orders. On the positive side, in order to guarantee the delivery and the smooth execution of the orders, the domestic major shipyards have been forced to resume production; on the negative side, the CANSI has warned shipyards of the risk of default caused by delayed delivery.”
无论是疫情也好，外围市场暴跌也罢，在短期造成的需求减少一般都会在稍后阶段出现报复性反弹，这是不足为奇的。问题是，以建造干散货船为主的中国新造船行业，命运和干散货船市场休戚相关。笔者每年对干散货船市场都会做一个检讨，今年文章的标题是《干散货船市场的复苏梦》。干散货船市场的大势如果向下，或者在底部盘整过程中的短周期波谷和波峰之间的交替往复，那么玩家就要非常当心买进和卖出的时间。一旦错过一次机会后面就可能步步错，几乎没有翻盘的机会。
Whether it is an outbreak or a collapse in freight market, it is normal for a short-term drop in demand to be followed by a retaliatory rebound at a later stage. The problem is that the fate of China's newbuilding industry, which is dominated by the construction of dry bulk carriers, is closely linked to the global dry bulk freight market.
If the long-term trend of the market is downward, or if it alternates between short cyclical troughs and peaks during bottom consolidation, players need to be very careful about the timing of buying and selling. One false move may make total loss. Investment in this situation requires experience, knowledge, skill and most important luck.
干散货船 | 成交稀疏
Dry Bulker| Few Orders
要么出于保密协议规定，要么出于订单尚未最后敲定，二月份披露的订单仅有一条，详见本期《二月份订单统计》栏目。反应五种基准船型价格指数的中国干散货船综合价格指数CNDPI环比下跌0.24%至825点水平，同比下跌3%。各个基准船型价格指数全线下跌，其中跌幅最大的是卡姆萨型船，环比分别下跌了0.37%至2,683万美元，灵便型船环比下跌0.27%至2,250万美元；同比下跌幅度就更大了，灵便型船下跌2.8%、卡姆萨型船下跌了4.2%；如果说相对数不够直观，绝对数就是灵便型船跌了65万美元和卡姆萨型船跌了117万美元。可见得时间上的把握是何等重要！由于现在仍然没有一种基于新造船价格指数的远期合约，所以船东一旦造了高价船就永远处于相对不利的位置。如果船价继续大幅度下跌，弃单的事情就难以避免了。
Either due to the provisions of the confidentiality agreement, or due to the order has not been finalized, only one order was disclosed in February, please refer to the column of "Newbuilding Orders Disclosed in February 2020". CNDPI, a composite price index of China's dry bulk carriers based on five sub-indexes, fell 0.24% from a month earlier to 825 points, down 3% from a year earlier.
Sub-indexes fell across the board, with Kamsarmax down 0.37% to $26.83 million and handysize down 0.27% to $22.5 million. Year-on-year declines were even steeper, with Handysize down 2.8% and Kamsarmax down 4.2%; if the relative numbers are less intuitive, the absolute numbers are Handysize down $650,000 and Kamsarmax down $1.17 million.
It is obvious to see how timing is important in shipping assets investment. There is still no forward contract, i.e. derivatives based on the newbuilding price index, so owners are always at a relative disadvantage position once they have built (purchased) high-priced ships. If newbuilding prices continue to fall sharply, the buyers (owners) have more and more incentive to cancel the contract and withdraw previous instalments. Legal disputes are inevitable.
液散货船 | 外高桥和新时代拿获苏伊士型订单
Tanker |SWS and New Times Secured Suezmax Orders
二月份的中国新造油轮价格指数CNTPI守在上个月的水平上，报856点，没有进一步下跌。分船型指数中LR2微升0.09%，而苏伊士型则微跌0.04%。
有意思的是唯一披露出来的两宗订单都是苏伊士型：一是江苏新时代从Dynacom Tankers获得4艘158K苏伊士型，价格据传只有5000万美元；二是上海外高桥从Eastern Pacific Shipping获得2艘同类型船订单，价格据传也只有5200-5300万美元；真实价格无法获得证实，而二月份的苏伊士型新造船价格指数报5503万美元，二者的差距巨大，要么传言的价格不准确，要么还有其他条件与指数有较大的区别。各分船型指数是一个折算后的单船平均价，每个单船价是经纪人按照基准船型估算出来（或者直接就是基准船型的成交价），再按基准付款条件（10%X4+60%）进行折算的（详见CNTPI基准船型定义）。
和以往一样，韩国船厂仍然保持在油轮领域的领先地位。从MR、LR2到VLCC，各种船型均有斩获。大鲜拿获的2+2艘MR订单价格据传为3300-3400万美元，而本期的中国新造船MR价格指数为3323万美元。如果与韩国相同的价格，中国船厂的价格就没有吸引力了。脱散入油不久的万利轮船在大鲜造船下的LR2订单价格据报为5200万美元，而本期中国新造LR2价格指数为4553万美元，低了600多万美元。详见本期的《二月披露的新船订单》栏目。
The China Newbuilding Tanker Price Index (CNTPI) for February stayed at last month's level at 856 points, with no further drop. The LR2 index rose 0.09%, while the Suezmax fell 0.04%.
Interestingly, the only two significant orders that have been disclosed in Feb are both Suezmax. One is Jiangsu New Times bagged an order of 4 158Ks from Dynacom, the price is reported at $50 million only; Second, SWS has inked an order for two 158Ks from Eastern Pacific Shipping, with a price reportedly between $52 and $53 million. The real price could not be verified, and the index for Suezmax in February was $55.03 million, a wide gap that could either be explained by inaccurate rumors or other factors which are far more different from the specification of index base ship type. However, some panel shipbrokers have made their assessment at relatively lower level but their voices were too weak to influence the index, an average of all panel members.
South Korea's shipyards remain the leaders in the tanker sector as usual. New orders include MR, LR2, VLCC, etc. The price for the 2+2 MR orders acquired by Dae Sun is said to be $33 - $34 million, while the MR price index in CNTPI in Feb is $33.23 million. If the price is the same as South Korea, the price of Chinese yards is not competitive. The price of the LR2 order placed by Valles Steamship in Dae Sun Shipbuilding was reported at US$52 million, while the price index for LR2 in CNTPI in Feb was US$45.53 million, more than $6 million lower. The ship owner has been in dry bulk market for a long time. It is reported that the company has sold all its dry bulkers and begun its tanker business.
集装箱船 | 只见支线船订单
Containership | New Orders on Feederships Only
本期新造集装箱船综合价格指数CNCPI也无升跌，报835点。和油轮的情况相似，分船型指数各有升跌：1100箱型船跌0.05%、1900箱型船跌0.21%、2700箱型船无升跌、5000箱型船跌0.15%，万箱船升了0.08%。
披露的订单仍然是屈指可数，而且集中在小型支线船型上，详见本期的《二月披露的新船订单》栏目。船东和船厂之间的价格分歧很大，在一定程度上影响了成交。
CNCPI stood at 835 points in Feb, the same position compared with Jan. Similar to the situation of oil tankers, the sub-indexes rose and fell respectively: 1100teu fell 0.05%, 1900teu fell 0.21%, 2700teu unchanged, 5000teu fell 0.15%, and 10,000teu rose 0.08%.
The number of orders disclosed is still limited and concentrated in feederships, as reported in the following column Newbuilding Orders Disclosed in February 2020. The offer and bid between the shipyards and owners cannot match easily, which affects the fixture to some extent. It is said that some shipyards can hardly accept cut-throat prices bid by the shipowners.
(详见完整版)
Newbuilding Orders Disclosed in Feb. 2020
......
This is an abridged copy only. Full text is available at Market Review for subscribers only.
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中国新造船价格指数有限公司独家代理
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